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GOLD & SILVER : BEST OPPORTUNITY IN THE MARKET

Present Scenario

In this havoc , when the entire global market is heading towards recession and its a scene of discomfort and fear people are finding very difficult to trace a right place to invest there hard earned money , which in turn would not only give them handsome return but also assure the principal amount to be safe and secured. The stock market has stumble down not only in domestic but in international markets also. After number of generous effort from the financial bodies of the country including RBI , SEBI and the Finance ministry very insignificant results have been noticed and that too for a very short period. The market is facing difficulty to find the way ahead and get support at least not to decline further. The portfolio of the traders and investors are declining to vast extent day by day , whether we realize them by booking our losses or not is a secondary factor. In this scenario investors have not only lost the unredeemed profits but the invested capital has been washed off badly , moreover the remainder is stuck for a infinite period of time. This lead to credit crunch and shortage of liquidity in the market, thereby sole cause of financial instability of the country as a whole. In circumstances as such of failure of financial Institutions & big corporates , rise in figures of unemployment & inflation.After severe steps from govt. to improve liquidity in the market , no significant results are found that is leading us towards a dangerous situation ahead as United states of America.

What to do now?

In the above mentioned situation its tough to track the path to invest and keep them secured.
The only way to be secured is to invest in precious metal , which is acceptable worldwide. These metal include GOLD & SILVER. Even though the currency is not valid or not acceptable in some parts of the world but these metals have international values. In a situation when the country gets bankrupted the currency gets value less but the gold is the only base for the public of that country to have financial health. The currency of any country is printed on basis of gold reserve or else one would have printed as much as money required but that is restricted to amount of gold deposited. When the reserve gets nil the value of currency of that country gets zero. In a situation of financial crisis the steps is considered as first a deep cut in stock index of that country, secondly sale of gold , sale of property respectively.

GOLD & SILVER has very bright future ahead and will make new life time highs. There may some depression due to international crisis and sale of gold from the country moving towards deep recession to make financial stability for time being , but it has provided a great opportunity for us to invest but for long term view , its best investment opportunity.

Being a financial advisor I would suggest to rush to accumulate gold. Some lower level may be seen but it may turn around from any levels. The maximum low expected is Rs 8000 per 10 gms but It may be a dream value , as it has strong support at higher levels. The best way to invest would be to start buying from current levels and average. In case you wish to go for 100 gms buy 25 gms in 4 times , at every dip to average your purchase.

My View On Cummins India


About The Company


Cummins India is the largest engine maker of the country. The stock has not been popular among the investors.The margins has been reduced but considering the present trend of margin pressure being faced by capital goods manufacturers, this kind of erosion in margin pressure is acceptable and understandable. The rise in topline is quite healthy, which gives a lot of confidence to the investors for future performance of the company. One can safely assume a growth of 35% in topline while a rise of 30% in bottomline for FY 09 and FY 10.


About The Financials


The company has posted good Q2 results with topline rising to Rs.808 crores (Rs.540 crores in corresponding quarter of previous year) registering a growth of about 50%. This can definitely be termed as an excellent growth considering the situation prevailing in capital goods, automobiles and manufacturing sector. PBT also risen by about 42% to Rs.128.95 crores against Rs.91.10 crores. Net profit also rose by 41% from Rs.66.48 crores to Rs.93.82 crores resulting in an EPS of Rs.4.74 for the quarter against Rs.3.36 of Q2 FY 08.The growth has been linear and H1 of FY 09 had a topline of R.1,540 crores (Rs.1,095 crores) with PBT of Rs.250 crores (Rs.180.45 crores) and PAT of Rs.182 crores against Rs.130 crores of H1 FY 08. EPS is placed at Rs.9.20 against Rs.6.59 for first half of FY 09.It may get noted that the EBIT margin has slipped to 13% for the quarter against 14.60% of the corresponding quarter in the previous year. And this reduction of 1.60% is instrumental in fall of bottomline relatively lower than the topline growth.


About The Stock

Though the stock price is correcting due to down trend in market but the performance of the company is good and could be considered while selecting stock for investment.

Disclaimer :
I do not have personal holding in this stock.

What About Index Levels next?




Very long back , I had declared to my followers that the time ahead is very astonishing and the levels are unexpected. As per elliot wave analysis I had explained the cycle of bear phase in March '08 itself that whenever market enter in this cycle , which is confirmed at this point of time we use to see the following symptoms:-

1. 45% - 60 % cut from the highest point of the Index.

2. After bottoming, the Index consolidate for a period.

3. A scam or particular stock in which operator work will be best hammered. As in 1992 Harshat Mehta fall ACC cement was the culprit. In 2000 Ketan Parik Severe Fall in Technology pack was aimed and in this 2008 we target Reliance pack & Larsen.

4. Those stock which drive the stock in a particular rally get worst hit and in next rally they remain apart from the stock which drive the Index.As 1992's ACC is consolidating yet and 2000's Technology pack failed to perform in the recent rally instead they were busy making new lows during the rally when other stocks were outperforming.


Note :

1. To get answer of the following queries:-

a. When & Where will Index Bottom out?
b. Till when will market consolidate?
c. When will next rally begin?
d. Which sector will now participate in the next rally?


======NON registered member can register to get availed of the answers.
TO REGISTER EMAIL AT : ommansarovar@sify.com

My View On Ponni Sugars (Erode) Ltd.


About The Company


Ponni Sugars is a small company in its field but the management is doing well.ICICI Bank Limited has withdrawn their Nominee Director, Mr K J Rajasimha from the Board of Directors of Ponni Sugars and nominating in his place Mr. Manas Ranjan Pani as their Nominee Director.

Its current results throws a light on the expectations of other sugar results.It may be noted that sugar prices were firm during July – September 08, quarter and hence all the companies are going to present healthy results. However, from mid September, sugar prices have started softening and the trend is likely to remain the same till end of calendar year, as crushing season would be starting soon in Maharashtra and U.P. But due to lower production of about 20 million tonnes expected in season 08 – 09, sugar prices would rise form March 09.


About The Results


Total income of the company during the quarter is at Rs.33.76 crores against Rs.40.26 crores in the corresponding quarter of previous year. PAT for the quarter is at Rs.3.10 crores (against a loss of Rs.2.39 crores) and a net loss of Rs.1.88 crores in FY 08. This is after booking Rs.1.65 crores, being increase in cane price, effective from 1st October 07.During the quarter, the company issued 40 lakh equity shares at Rs.50 per share, by converting preference share capital, due to which paid up equity of the company rose to R.8.60 crores.EPS of the company for the quarter is at Rs.3.64 while for H1 of FY 09, it is at Rs.2.50. This is because; the company had its bottomline in red for June 08 quarter, at Rs.1.02 crores.


About The Stock

The stock is trading near its 52 week low.Though the stock is small in its sector but if sugar sector leads the rally the stock has the capacity to reward there stake holders.

Disclaimer : I do not have any personal holding in this stock.

My View On Biocon

About The Company

Biocon is well renowned company of the pharmaceuticals sector and hold significant position in its field.For long term investment this counter is always counted to be part of the portfolio.The resulted posted by the company is not satisfactory and forcing to have second thought regarding investment in this stock.


About The Financials


Results for Sep 2008 shows EBITDA margin in pharma segment plummeting to 25.95% from 37.11% of Q1 FY 09. The dent on profitability has been due to rise in raw material costs from 43% of net sales in Q1 of FY 09 to 53.50% in Q2 of FY 09.Total income of Biocon during second quarter ending Sept. 08 was at Rs.442 crores against Rs. 279 crores of the corresponding quarter in the previous year. However, Q2 FY 08 includes the workings of its enzymes business, which was transferred to third party, effective from 01-10-07. Hence, it is appropriate to compare the results of the company on sequential basis.

Net sales rose to Rs.439.30 crores in Q2 from Rs.263.93 crores in Q1 of FY 09. Inspite of this, profit after tax but before exceptional items, has been flat at Rs.49.84 crores against Rs.48.55 crores of Q1. After forex losses provisions of Rs.25.45 crores during Q2, PAT was placed at Rs.25.02 crores against Rs.15.04 crores of Q1.

The company has issued 1 : 1 bonus on 15-09-08, due to which paid up equity of the company increased to Rs.100 crores. This has resulted into an EPS of Re.1.25 for the quarter while it is at Rs.2 for first half of FY 09.


About The Stock


The stock is near top its 52 week low but the pressure on margins may drown it further. The stock is expected to correct more because of the disappointing results.Fresh investors need patient to invest in this stock.


Disclaimer : I do not have any personal holding in this stock.

What Levels For Index Ahead?




Very long back , I had declared to my followers that the time ahead is very astonishing and the levels are unexpected. As per elliot wave analysis I had explained the cycle of bear phase in March '08 itself that whenever market enter in this cycle , which is confirmed at this point of time we use to see the following symptoms:-

1. 45% - 60 % cut from the highest point of the Index.

2. After bottoming, the Index consolidate for a period.

3. A scam or particular stock in which operator work will be best hammered. As in 1992 Harshat Mehta fall ACC cement was the culprit. In 2000 Ketan Parik Severe Fall in Technology pack was aimed and in this 2008 we target Reliance pack & Larsen.

4. Those stock which drive the stock in a particular rally get worst hit and in next rally they remain apart from the stock which drive the Index.As 1992's ACC is consolidating yet and 2000's Technology pack failed to perform in the recent rally instead they were busy making new lows during the rally when other stocks were outperforming.


Note :

1. To get answer of the following queries:-

a. When & Where will Index Bottom out?
b. Till when will market consolidate?
c. When will next rally begin?
d. Which sector will now participate in the next rally?


======All my registered members can mail me and get there answer.


======NON registered member can register to get availed of the answers.
TO REGISTER EMAIL AT ommansarovar@sify.com

My View On ICSA


About The Stock

The company has presence in energy solution provider, which continues to remain a growth area. However, in the time of crisis, market has started suspecting everything including financial results and FII stake. This implies confidence crisis, which is not encouraging anyone to go for investment in the stock.Taking a call on the results as well as sector, one can expect the company to continue to show better results, which needs to be positively received by the market.

Concern In the Counter


The concern has been with FII stake in the company, which is on a declining trend to 47.77% as at 30-09-08 against 50.40% as at 30-06-08. However, a positive for the company is conversion of its FCCB, as, out of FCCB of US $ 46 million, US $ 25 million were converted and US $ 21 million are remaining outstanding as at 30-09-08. Considering expected annual profit of over Rs.100 crores, for FY 09, the present outstanding FCCB of about Rs.100 crores is not an area of concern.However, market is expecting divestment of stake by FIIs and low promoters stake of about 18%, in the company, creates further weakness.


About The Financials

Results for quarter ending September 08, with total income rising by about 86% to Rs.279.61 crores from Rs.149.83 crores of corresponding quarter in the previous year. Even on sequential basis, growth in topline is by about 16%. Similar is the case with its bottom line, which rose by about 66% to Rs.48.03 crores from Rs.28.88 crores of Q2 FY 07. EPS for first half of the company is at Rs.20, which would be close to Rs.40 for FY 09. This results in a PE of close to 5 times, which makes the stock reasonably priced.


About The Stock


On 10-10-08 it had a new low of Rs.138 with high volatility with share bouncing back to Rs.232 on 14-10-08. Higher volatility is a risk factor so I do not recommend the investor to involve in this stock.


Disclaimer : I do not have any personal holding in this stock.

My View on RS Software

About The Company


The company belongs to software group.Though the size of the company is small and the sole aim of the company is to create sensation by publishing its quarterly results with blocks of “Net Profit up 100 times” etc. The sole aim of the promoters of the company are to have market operations and to trap the investors at the higher levels.


About The Financials


The result for the second quarter ending September 08, wherein PAT of the company of Rs.178 lakhs for the quarter, far exceeds PAT of FY 08, which was at Rs.117 lakhs.There seems to be no correlation between the profitability over the quarters, as also in regard to EPS stated by the company, for various periods. For FY 08, on equity base of Rs.744 lakhs, with PAT of R.117 lakhs, EPS is stated at 16 paise, while for September 08 quarter, on PAT of Rs.178 lakhs, EPS on equity of Rs.744 lakhs is stated at Rs.2.18.

About The Stock


Share now ruling at Rs.18 had its 52 week high low of Rs.52 and Rs.15 and when established mid cap I.T. companies are available at a PE multiple of 3 to 4 times, who would be interested in these manipulative stocks.I do ot suggest to make any investment in this stock.


Disclaimer : I do not have any personal holding in this stock.

Taxation Rules For Gold Jewellery


Whats the taxation rules for GOLD?

Any profit on transaction of gold is considered under the category of capital gains.

How Can we know whether it is long term or short term capital gain?

Gold ornaments held for a period of more than 36 months are long term capital assets and attract long term capital gains (LTCG) tax. If held for less than 36 months, then they are short term capital assets and attract short term capital gains (STCG) tax.

How to calculate LTCGT?

Long Term Capital Gain Tax = (sale price of ornaments - Indexed cost of acquisition)x 20%

What is indexed cost of acquisition?

The tax laws allow you to take the benefit of rising prices or inflation. That is, your original purchase price will be adjusted to current prices. That way, your inflation adjusted gains will be lower than the absolute gains.

My View On Prism Cement

About The Company


Though the company belongs to cement sector.The main culprit for this dismal performance has been fall in realizations as well as rise in energy bill.Due to old plant, the company is incurring an annual expenses of Rs.100 crores, which is taking a tool on its profitability.


About The Financials


Prism Cement had posted c financial results for the first quarter ending September 08 with topline plummeting from Rs.193 crores to Rs.163 crores with EBIT falling to Rs.23.53 crores against Rs.67.76 crores in the corresponding quarter of the previous year. Expectedly PAT fell to Rs.15 crores against Rs.51.84 crores in the corresponding quarter of the previous year, which has resulted in an EPS of 50 paise only for the quarter against Re.1.74 of Q1 FY 08. On consolidated basis PAT is placed at Rs.13.17 crores translating into an EPS of 44 paise only.Though annual shutdown took away Rs.25.68 crores in the quarter the same was existing at Rs.19.22 crores in the corresponding quarter of the previous year.


About The Stock


The company is not expected to perform good in near future so present times do not suggest it to be a good investment opportunity.

Disclaimer : I do not have any personal holding in this stock.