Chambal Fertilisers and Chemicals’ (Chambal’s) Q4FY09 net sales grew by 43.4% YoY to Rs 8,708 million (our expectation was Rs 7,773 million), on the back of higher trading sales and other income. Chambal’s adjusted PAT grew by 107.9% to Rs 593 million (Our expectation was Rs 618 million)."
Chambal’s 90% of the urea business is on cost plus 12% post tax ROE (i.e. fixed earning) basis and shipping business is on time contract till FY10. Hence, we believe that a downward pressure on earnings would be less. We expect PAT to grow at two year’s CAGR (FY09-11E) of 9.5%. While on the basis of historical rolling band chart of last ten years, Chambal has traded in the range of 4x-16x. We maintain our ‘Accumulate’ rating on the stock, on the basis of 9x at FY10E earnings, target price of Rs 60