My View On Indian Overseas Bank

About The Company Background

Indian Overseas Bank (IOB) is a mid-sized public sector bank headquartered in Chennai. The bank has a dominant presence in southern India, which accounts for 45% of its branch network. At present, the bank has a network of 1,781 branches spread across the country. IOB has a strong international presence in eight countries. The bank is characterised as one having superior NIMs, best return ratios – return on equity (RoE) – and healthy asset quality. IOB did business of Rs 115,800 crore and had a balance sheet size of Rs 82,256 crore in FY07. On the technology front, 72% of business, or 800 branches, are covered under core banking solutions (CBS). The bank plans to enhance this number to 90%, or 1,500 branches, by FY08. Also, IOB plans to foray into a joint venture with Sompo Japan Insurance Inc, Allahabad Bank, Karnataka Bank and Dabur Investment for starting its non-life insurance business.

Financials of the Company

Total deposits grew from Rs 70,205 crore in Q1FY08 to Rs 85,001 crore in Q1FY09 recording a jump of 21.08%. Gross advances increased from Rs 48610 crore as on Q1FY08 to Rs 63419 crore in Q1FY09, growing by 30.46%. The operating profit for Q1FY09 was at Rs 241.18 crore as against the operating profit of Rs 409.17 crore for Q1FY08. This decrease in the first quarter of this year was mainly due to the loss booked on account of the inter segment category transfer of securities and loss on sale of securities and provision for wage arrears.

The net profit for Q1FY09 was Rs 255.97 crore. This figure was lower by Rs.12.52 crore when compared to the net profit of Rs 268.49 crore booked during Q1FY08. Business per employee increased from Rs 4.81 crore in Q1FY08 to Rs 5.93 crore in Q1FY09. The gross NPA came down from 2.34% in Q1FY08 to 1.73% in Q1FY09. However, the net NPA percentage has gone up from 0.50% to 0.75% for the same period. We expect IOB to deliver a 15% CAGR in PAT over FY08-FY10E.

Valuations

At the current market price of Rs 101, the stock is trading at 1.1x and 0.9x its FY09E and FY10E ABV of Rs 92 and Rs 114, respectively. We believe IOB at these levels offers value in terms of reasonable business growth coupled with higher than average NIMs. We believe the bank will be able to generate higher than average RoEs of 23-24%. We expect the company to deliver a 20% return over six months. At the target price of Rs 121, the stock is trading at 1.3x and 1.1x its FY09E and FY10E ABV.

About The Stock

The entire banking pack is volatile and may under perform in the coming days, its better to stay away from bank stocks.

My View On Bank Of India

About The Company

Bank of India (BoI) is considered to be one of the more efficient public sector. It is one of the banks in India having a strong international presence. It was incorporated in 1906 and was nationalised in 1969 along with 13 other major banks. The bank came out with its maiden public issue in 1997. In terms of business volumes, it occupies a premier position among nationalised banks. It was the first Indian bank to open a branch outside the country. Currently, it has 2,622 branches in India . During the past few years, it has strengthened its information technology infrastructure, undertaken business process re-engineering, net worked branches and computerized all its branches. Its global business has grown to Rs 2,63,488 crore in FY08 from Rs 2,05,176 crore in FY07, a growth of 28% YOY.

About The Finaincials

BOI delivered a 24% growth in NII to Rs.1181 crores from Rs.947 crore contributed by a 39% surge in advances and 30% jump in deposits. BOI’s global yields on advances of 9.15% for Q1FY09 was slightly lower than 9.39% in Q1FY08 and on other side cost of funds has gone up from 5.02% to 5.13% in Q1FY09, both putting negative pressure on NIMs making it fall from 2.96% to 2.89% during same period. The CASA (current account saving account) for the bank for Q1FY09 declined to 34% Vs 36% as the hike in deposits rates made term deposits attractive leaving CASA deposits growth at 21% y-o-y.

BOI has one of the lowest cost to income ratios at 39% for Q1FY09 as compared to 50% a year earlier. These have contributed to a operating profit jumping 58% y-o-y. The operating efficiency can also be inferred from business per employee improved by 37% over Q1FY08 and business per branch improved by 216% over same period. Also the bank witnessed a strong traction on the non interest income front which grew by 49% from Rs. 381 crores in Q1FY08 to Rs.385 crores in Q1FY09. This was led by a robust growth in the commission/exchange/brokerage (CEB) segment, which witnessed a growth of 53%y-o-y. Also the rise in Non interest income can be attributed to the cash recovery from w/off accounts that jumped 335% to Rs. 87 crores. Bank of India (BOI) continued the uptrend with PAT growth of 78% to Rs.562 crores, surprising everybody.

About The Stock

The banking pack as a whole is under pressure and is expected to underperform in the coming days , so it would be better to stay away from the counter as a whole.

Disclaimer : I do not have any personal holding in this stock.

ICICI BANK WORST HIT ON CREDIT CARD DUES

We all have been at the receiving end of a persistent salesman on ICICI Bank, pestering us for taking a credit card. They used to call up at odd hours, send scores of SMSs and direct mailers through post and even when you go to the bank for some transaction, there used to be these credit card salesmen, not ready to take “no” for an answer.

And now, all that aggression seems to have hit ICICI Bank the wrong way. It is said to have lost more than Rs 11 crore due to over 8,000 cases of credit card. There were 8,280 cases reported by the ICICI Bank to the Reserve Bank of India, in which it lost Rs 11.47 crore between April and December 2008.

ICICI Bank was the biggest loser. According to the data, a total of 12,959 such cases were received during the said period in which various banks lost Rs.36.54 crore. American Express Bank had 703 complaints in which it lost Rs 6.04 crore. HSBC Bank had 2,484 cases and it lost Rs 4.90 crore. Citibank bore a loss of Rs 4.73 crore, Standard Chartered Bank Rs 2.39 crore and Deutsche Bank lost Rs.2.09 crore. Only banks to have no cases on credit card frauds reported against them were IDBI Bank, Canara Bank and Indian Overseas Bank.

My View On KEC International

About The Company

A part of the RPG group, KEC International, a leader in power transmission, engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) business, the stock was in the limelight yesterday on the back of having received huge orders.

The company won an order worth Rs 255 crore for rural electrification from West Bengal State Electricity Distribution Company and another worth Rs 67 crore from Power Grid Corp. It also won a third order worth Rs 43 crore for a turnkey transmission project from Transmission Corporation of Andhra Pradesh.

About The Results

The company has posted results for the third quarter ended December 31, 2008 it posted a revenue of Rs.886.31 crore as against Rs 708.91 crore during the corresponding period last year, a growth of 25%. During the quarter, the operating margin of the company declined to 8.21% compared with the previous year period. Interest cost increased 67.06% to Rs.29.72 crore while depreciation cost rose 4.82%. Net profit for the third quarter was at Rs.24.97 crore, down 52% on a YoY.

Its order book was at Rs.5000 crore as on Dec 31, 2008. Despite this fall in the Q3 bottomline, KEC remains a good stock. Its biggest strength is that it has insulated itself, to some extent with a focus on international as well as domestic market. 65% of its revenue comes from international markets including 25% from the Middle East region. It is is catering to about 20 countries globally of which majority are underdeveloped in terms of power infrastructure, meaning big business opportunity. KEC is also nearly doubling its combined (outsourced and own) manufacturing capacity from 110,000 tonne to 200,000 tonne per year.

About The Stock

Existing holders are suggested to remain in the position and for fresh buying we could keep a shrewd eye on the market before buying.

Disclaimer : I do not have any personal holding in this stock.

My View On SKF India

About The Company

When 40% of its revenue comes from the auto sector, which is going through a major slowdown, naturally, the effect was bound to be felt by SKF India. The slowdown in the automotive market has resulted in many of SKF’s major clients in India cutting down orders 'to the tune of over 10%. Its industrial segment accounts for 60% of its total revenues.

In November 08’, due to the slowdown in the automotive market in India, it decided to put on hold its Rs.150 crore manufacturing facility at Haridwar. The company had earlier planned the 10 acres plant to go on stream by the end of the year. It expects to commission the plant in the first quarter of 2010 although it is yet to take a final decision. Also in Q3, it had laid off 100 temporary workers.

SKF India currently has three manufacturing facilities, two in Bangalore and one in Pune, with a third one being constructed in Ahmedabad, at an investment of Rs 300 crore and to be commissioned in June 2009.

The company has bagged an order of over 300 million euro to supply bearings to wind energy major Suzlon from its Ahmedabad plant when it goes on stream in the second quarter of the next year. This agreement with Suzlon is for five-and-a-half years.

About The Results

The company has posted results for the year ended 31^st Dec 2008, the financial performance of the company has taken a hit. Marginal rise in topline, followed by hike in operating costs and interest outgo, led to a fall in the bottomline. Infact its performance for fourth quarter was the worst during the year, where QoQ, net sales dipped 15% and net profit was down sharply by 56%.

For the year 2008, it’s net sales was up 4% at Rs.1630.42 crore. EBITDA was down 22% at Rs.207.94 crore. And it ended the year with a net profit of Rs.127.66 crore, down 20%. The Board recommended a dividend of Rs 4.50 per share on the equity shares of Rs 10 each.

About The Stock

Partial investment are could be made but keeping a shrewd eye on it's trend.

Disclaimer : I do not have any personal holding in this stock.

My View on Hindustan Unilever Ltd.

About The Company

One of the best managed and reputed company in the FMCG sector. The vast network and advertisement of its products the company hold handsome share in the retail sector. The company doesn't need any introduction as it is well known for its stability and goodwill through out the country and abroad. The company was named as Hindustan Lever which has been changed recently to Hindustan Unilever Ltd.

About The Results

HUL’s net sales growth of 16.8% for the December quarter is due to a respectable 20.8% in the home and personal care business and 23.8% in foods. But this growth was offset by the slowdown in soaps and detergents. This clearly means that if the company hopes to sustain growth, it needs to reduce prices or else, in this era of slowdown, people will shift to cheaper brands.

YoY investment behind brands continues at 10.1% of turnover, growing at 16%. Spends during the quarter remained competitive, although marginally lower by 1.3% over DQ’07. It posted a 13% rise in PAT before exceptional items grows by 13%. But after exceptional items, PAT was flat with a rise of just 1% at Rs.615.74 crore. This was also due to the higher exceptional gain of Rs.77.45 crore it had in Q3FY08. But QoQ, PAT was higher by 13%.

In the coming months, softening commodity prices augurs well for the business. But given the slowdown, it will have to pass on the benefit of these lower costs to the consumers by lowering its prices. So the net effect might be nil. Volumes will go up but lower realizations will keep the margins flat.

About The Stock

The stock is not much volatile due to which any vast fluctuation is not noticed neither in Bull run nor in Bear phase. But for safe investment it could be accumulated on every dip. The long term story remain intact.

Disclaimer: I do not have any personal holding in this stock.

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Dear Readers,

I would like to thank all my prestigious readers , who has given a overwhelmed response to my blog with gradual and remarkable increase in numbers of daily readers.

I am continuously getting mails from your end regarding your liking and demands from the blog. I try my best to answer all those mails but regret , if anyone of you had been overlooked because of any practical cause.

I assure to provide the best of my services to the nation free of cost to enable the traders recover from the losses made in the bear phase and the investor to make steady gain with minimum risk involvement in choosing the portfolio stock. I try to disclose the true fact in a stock without making any discrimination on basis of my personal likes & dislikes.

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1. Firstly , I use to provide multi bagger stock tips and some of the most profitable among them were NMDC , STC , Reliance Infra , Walchand Nagar , Jindal Steel , Unitech , Jai Corporation. There was hardly any stock ,which has out performed in the previous rally and was not recommended by me and that too when it ready to take off , neither too early nor too late.

2. Now, Considering the need of practical times , I have started a new service on basis of Elliot wave Theory & W. D. Gann's theory, , which is the most admirable from ancient times and well renowned for its accuracy on practical basis.

This theory could be based to make prediction for short to medium term . I do provide weekly stock recommendation , which would be definite out performer for the entire week.Also the monthly performer stock , which would be out performer for the month. This enable the trader and the investor , waiting side ways to avoid any losses in investment gets an opportunity to make steady and assured gain under my seal of assurance.

As I had outperformed in recommendation of multi bagger , I am performing in the same ratio in this regard. Though this is the first time , I am offering this service to poublic but I had made reasonable trial by trading of my own on base of it and had already started making handsome gains and after several assurance and confirmation , I am now ready to forward to the public , for those would register for it.

As it involve excess homework , so some charges is reasonable to be paid and it could not be distributed publically free of cost.

One thing I could assure that it would definitely help to recover losses made in past and also to make steady gain until the market turns to bull run , when we will gain from the multi bagger tip but its' no use sitting idle with our cash and making no profit out of it.

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My view On ITC Limited

About the Company

The brand is the identity of trust and has self identity in the country. It hardly need any introduction as the product of the company is used across the country in both retail and wholesale segment.

The company diversified into a whole lot of other things to mitigate the losses it might incur due to the persistent hike in excise duties on cigarettes. But given the current slowdown, looks like people are smoking more due to stress and keeping away from buying anything else.

About The Results

The company has posted results for the third quarter ended 31^st Dec 2008, Net Turnover at Rs.3833 crore grew by 11%. Cigarette revenue grew by 17%. It is pertinent to note that cigarettes still account for 40% of ITC’s revenues and contribute 87% to the bottomline.

Higher Paperboard & Packaging revenues which grew by 17%, scale up of the Stationery and Personal Care businesses and superior product mix in cigarettes combined to more than offset the impact of a sharp slowdown in the hotels business.

The decline in hotel revenues consequent to the economic slowdown and the unfortunate terror strikes in Mumbai, the continuing impact of high commodity prices and store rentals, brand building costs of the new Personal Care portfolio and the significant investments in augmenting distribution infrastructure and systems combined to exert intense pressure on profitability during the quarter. Hotels business has declined by 14%. The agri business revenues de-grew by 6% due to lower soya volumes and rationalisation of the agri-commodity portfolio. Consequently, pre-tax profits at Rs.1331 crore registered a slower growth of 8.5% over the same period last year. Net profit grew by 8.7% to Rs. 903 crore.

Losses in the consumer goods business were up this fiscal quarter due to the launch of personal care products such as soaps, shampoos, conditioners and shower gels. Infact the total loss incurred by this segment for all the three quarters stood at Rs.366 crore and there is one more quarter to go.

ITC is not a pure FMCG company unlike the others. So it would be wrong to assume that the low inflation would help the company reduce its costs and thus improve its margins. The hotel, agri, paper and cigarette business would surely have a much higher impact on the margins. It is expected to end FY09 on more or less a flat note.

About The Stock

The stock has one of the pillar of the stock market like Hindustan Unilever Limited who has not been ruined in the 2008 correction or bear phase , where all heavy weight has underperformed , while these two stocks has been able to maintain there levels.Partial investment could be made in this stock.

Disclaimer : I do not have any personal holding in this stock.

Hints On Market as per elliot Wave Theory

Dated 10/02/2009

As per Elliot wave theory we are anxiously waiting for somewhat catastrophic event to occur to create a sudden panic and help the wave "a" complete to help market to bottom out.Our expectation of bottom level stands for 6100 to 6500 level for BSE Sensex.

Though the budget is ahead so the market may move on domestic cues and overlook the international cues.But something catastrophic such as serial Bombay blast of 1992 or Attack at World Trade Centre (WTC) of 2001 is very near or say to occur in Feb for finalizing the bottom of the index and giving a golden chance to investor for buy.

ATTENTION MEMBERS !!!!!!!!!!

All registered member of my group are intimated that , they are entitle to email me to get the answer for the following in reply :

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My View On Kalindee

About The Company

The company, as the name suggest, is engaged in installation, commissioning of signaling and telecommunication projects and execution of gauge conversion projects for Indian Railways.

The stock has been one of the biggest gainers in yesterday’s trade. It closed at Rs.147, up 16%. And be it the oncoming Railway Budget or rumours of L&T hiking its stake, there seems to be a kind of buzz surrounding the company.

About The Results

Financially, the going has not been very good for third quarter ended 31^st Dec 2008. Net sales dropped 17% QoQ and 23% on a YoY at Rs.72.59 crore. PAT was down 7% QoQ and 52% on a YoY at Rs.2.96 crore.

In Nov 08’, L&T Capital acquired an additional 8.3% in the company, raising its stake to 13.93%. Promoters hold 23.57% stake while institutions and bodies corporate together hold 48.18%. The Board of the company is meeting today to consider the issue of raising further capital through GDR / FCCB / convertible warrants route. So market was agog with rumours that it might sell its stake to raise funds.

On 2^nd Dec 08’, the company bagged an order from for track work contract from Delhi Airport Express line, valued Rs.99.99 crore. It also received another work order of Rs.7.66 crore from RVNL, New Delhi. It has also been the lowest bidder in work contracts from South East Central Railway valued at about Rs.40.46 crore.

About The stock

Options available in the market are more attractive rather then investment to be made in this stock.

Disclaimer : I do not have any personal holding in this stock.

My View On Ambuja Cement

About The Company

Ambuja Cements, part of the Swiss cement giant Holcim, has been one of the leader of the market in the cement sector.The product is well renowned for its quality and strength.

About The Results

The company has posted results for the year ended 31^st Dec 2008, the company posted a decline of 25% in its consolidated net profit for the financial year to Rs 1,389.71 crore. Its consolidated net sales during the year stood at Rs 6,261.79 crore as against Rs 5,718.60 crore last financial year, up 9.5%.

Production increased 5% to 17.6 million tonnes (16.8 million tonnes). Domestic despatches were up 9%. Exports dipped by over 37%. Total expenditure rose 23% to Rs 4,716 crore as power and fuel costs jumped 30% to Rs 1,326 crore. This rise in power and fuel cost was due to the spike in coal prices, as captive power accounts for 80% of its total requirement. In Himachal Pradesh, the company buy’s from the grid. Freight expenses were up 12% to Rs 1,220 crore.

Key factors in this Stock

1. The board of directors has recommended a final dividend of Re 1 per share and the total dividend for the year works out to Rs 2.20 a share (110%).

2. The company has commissioned a grinding unit of 1.2 million tonnes at the ACL terminal at Surat in Gujarat.

3. The captive power plant of 18.7 MW will be completed at Rabriyawas plant in Rajasthan.

4. Its additional power plants at Ambujanagar, Bhatapara and Chandrapur will add another 90 MW.

5. The projects at Bhatapara in Chhattisgarh and Rauri in Himachal Pradesh, to add 4.4 million of clinker capacity, are slated for completion by end-2009.

6. The bulk cement terminal at Kochi is to be commissioned in the first quarter of 2009.

7.In the next two years, the company plans to acquire three new vessels to strengthen its fleet of ships.

About The Stock

The long term story remain intact so partial investment may be made at panics.

Disclaimer: I do not have any personal investment in this stock.

My View On Pyramid Saimira

About The Company

This stock has not been popular among the investors in the capital market but due to some news driven in the stock from recent times has bought it into lime light.

1. First came the “SEBI fake letter” on the open offer. Then a days ago it was news about the promoter – Mr.P.Saminathan having sold shares which he refuted.

2. Then the latest has been the news about Sun TV eyeing a stake in the company. This again was refuted by the management.

3. Promoter Nirmal Kotecha had sold his entire holding of 0.24% in the company, after which he now holds no shares in the company. He earlier held a 25% stake and had been selling since November last year. Though the management clarified that Kotecha is neither a director nor a major stakeholder of the company, also he himself had resigned as a non-executive and non-independent Director from the board of the company in November 08’. Yet this seemed to be the last straw for the punters and the stock price plunged to a new low yesterday at Rs.21 on the BSE. But this persistent being in the news of the company has dented the reputation and it seems to have become more of a speculative stock than be ruled by fundamentals.

About The Results

The company has posted results for the third quarter ended 31^st Dec 09’, the company had a net loss of Rs 74.7 crore versus profit of Rs 29.8 crore. Its total income was at Rs 138 crore versus Rs 231.4 crore. It posted a MTM forex loss of Rs.76 crore. The company suffered a loss of Rs.40 crore in Tamil film called Kuchelan. The success rate of films was above 20% in FY08 but now in Q3FY09 it has come down to around 10% and that has impacted the bottomline.

Q4 is not expected to be very good. People will start going to movies only when there is some job security and assurance of having a regular source of income. Going to movies is no longer cheap and people are now careful about spending money. A family of four going for a movie sets it back by around Rs.1000 and when there is a slowdown, this is one luxury people will avoid till sentiments improve.

About The Stock

The stock is purely volatile on basis of the news driven one after another. For conservative investors it would be a risk play. Better to stay away from the counter.

Disclaimer : I do not have any personal holding in this stock.

My View On Zee Entertainment

About The Company

The Company owned by Mr Goyal , who bought revolution to the world of entertainment with a launch of single channel Zee tv and thereafter a series of channels has been associated to it.

Though the ranking of the channel has been reduced from number one to third position after facing a tough competition from the market including Star and Sony.

About The Results

The company has posted results for the third quarter ended 31/12/2008 where the consolidated revenues, on a YoY rose marginally by 5% at Rs.545.6 crore, its net profit slipped 26% to Rs 84 crore. The company has incurred a foreign exchange derivatives loss of Rs 11.6 crore in the quarter ended December 2008. OPM has fallen on a YoY from 49.47% to 35% and NPM has come down from 28.48% to 17.72%.

The slowdown has impacted the company more than one would have imagined. The technicians strike in Oct-Nov impacted the bottomlines. But more than that, advertising revenues have slumped and this has dented the overall performance. Advertising rates, all over have come down drastically but the company wants to keep holding on to its rates and prefers to clock in lower volumes than lower the rates. This might be good for the pride but for the financials of the company, this attitude does not bode too well. One has to move with the time and now when the times are bad, instead of depressing the bottomlines, it would have been prudent for the company if it had reduced rates. But if the same trend continues, which as such is expected till first half of FY10, does this mean that till then the company will not bring down the rates?

The company expects to earn revenue from its subscription income and for FY09, advertising revenue is expected to grow by 15% and subscription by 23%. The company trimmed its FY09 operating margin forecast to 25% compared with 28% last year. Q4 is expected to remain flat.

About The Stock

Entertainment sector has a whole is not a good pack and would not reward the investors at least.Short term gain on specific news could be made but having delivery position is not a good idea.

Disclaimer : I do not have any personal holding in this stock.

My View On Praj Industries

About The Company

Praj Industries is a global Indian company that offers innovative solutions to significantly add value in bio-ethanol, bio-diesel and brewery plants and related wastewater treatment systems.

The company is engaged in the design, manufacture, supply and commissioning of fermentation and distillation equipments for the manufacture of ethanol. The company was promoted by Pramond Chaudhari in 1985. The company's plant is located at Bhosari, Pune (Maharastra). PIL came out with a public issue of Rs.6.20 crore in January 1994. PIL manufactures plate head exchangers in collaboration with REHEAT, Sweden. The company sells its product under the name, 'HIFLUX' and solvent recovery systems under the brand name 'Ecofine'. The company also manufactures pressure fermentation breweries in collaboration with Dab Brav Consult Gmbh, Germany. The company has a market share of 60 per cent and is the market leader in ethanol plant and equipment manufacture. The company, in collaboration with Vogellbusch Gmbh, Austria, introduced cascade continuous fermentation process, for the first time in India. PIL has promoted a subsidiary in Singapore, Praj Far East Pte Ltd, for export of design and engineering services and industrial products to the South East Asian countries. The company plans to expand its manufacturing facilities near Pune.

About The Results

The company has posted results for the third quarter ended 31^st Dec 2008, net income from operations increased by 16% at Rs 210.05 crore. EBIDTA margins sustained at 22% of sales. The company posted a forex gain of Rs.9.69 crore on account of restatement of advances received in foreign currency from customers against orders placed by them. PAT was up 20% at Rs.47.31 crore.

The Company has raised Rs 117.05 crore in June 2007 through preferential allotment of equity shares and warrants. Out of this, an amount of Rs.57.86 crore was deployed towards expansion of R & D and balance amount was deployed towards expansion of manufacturing facilities. Accordingly, the total amount stands fully utilised.

Its order book currently stands at around Rs.800 crore. Amongst the notable order received, were orders from Mexico, Thailand, Vietnam and India. Mexico recently mandated 10% blending of bioethanol. USA has pre-poned its Renewable Fuels targets from 2012 of 11 bln gallons to 2009. This move is expected to support the capacity build-up. EU Parliament adopted the Renewable Energy Directive which mandates 10% (by energy content) biofuels blending in all transport fuels by the year 2020. This entails additional 12-14 bln litres capacity for bioethanol. These two developments would go in favour of the company but would take quite some time to fructify.

In India, a year ago, when crude was ruling around $100 per barrel and the Govt was serious about making another 10% blending of ethanol compulsory from October 08’. Then the future prospects of the stock had looked very good. The fortunes of this company are closely linked with the increasing acceptance of ethanol-blended petrol and bio-fuels. Now with crude ruling around $40 per barrel and ethanol blending also postponed indefinitely, the going looks uphill for the company.

The only enticing aspect of the stock right now remains its shareholders – Rakesh Jhunjhunwala holds 8.47% stake, Tata Capital 7.32%, Vinod Khosla’s holding is down marginally from 6.15% in Q2FY09 to 5.95%. JM Financial which held 5.25% stake in first quarter, reduced its stake to 3.82% in Q2FY09 and now in Q3FY09 it has gone up to 4.17%.

About The Stock

Any fresh investment is not likely to be fruitful in short to medium term.

Disclaimer : I do not have any personal holding in this stock.

My View On Grasim

About The Company

A well known company of the Aditya Birla Group. The stock has been fancied for long in the capital market and the stock has rewarded the shareholder well every time.

About The Results

The company has posted result for the third quarter ended 31st December 2008. Interest cost rose by 90% due to commissioning of new projects and increased borrowings. Depreciation rose by 38% and these factors coupled with the constrained VSF business performance and general slowdown in economy, impacted the net profit.

Its consolidated revenues were higher by 6 per cent at Rs. 4,632 crore (Rs. 4,350 crore). Net profit was lower at Rs. 460 crore (Rs. 721 crore), down 36% on a YoY due to the weak performance by its viscose staple fibre (VSF) business and higher input and energy costs.

Viscose staple fibre segment during the quarter, on a YoY showed a decline of 27% in production and sales was down 22%. The performance of VSF business was adversely affected due to depressed consumer demand for textile globally. Operating profits and margins dipped, also due to lower realisation, higher pulp and sulphur cost and the weakening of rupee.

In the coming months demand for VSF is not expected to pick up as it is dependent on the textile sector. And it would take a while for the textile sector to start recovering. As such the company has reduced the prices of VSF further with effect from January, 2009 to prevent its substitution by competing fibres and imports. So realisations are expected to take a further hit in fourth quarter too.

Another segment to be affected was sponge iron, whose production fell 21% and sales was down 15%. Growth in cement was flat and ditto for caustic soda. Higher caustic prices were negated by the abnormally low chlorine and HCL prices, which were down by almost 90% and 70% respectively over the corresponding quarter. The lower demand from fibre segment is likely to affect the caustic volumes in the current Q4.

About The Stock

The stock is to remain under pressure for the coming time. Any fresh investment should not be made at present times.

Disclaimer : I do not have any personal holding in this stock.

My View On GMR Infrastructure

About The Company

The company has a reputed working management well known for its quality work. The stock has been in lime light in the recent bull run.

About The Results

The company has posted results for the quarter ended 31^st Dec 2008 , which has shown a dip in profit due to forex losses. PAT, on a YoY after the forex loss was down by 36.26% at Rs.40.84 crore. But if one were to see the PAT without the forex loss, it was up 4.71% at Rs.66.08 crore.

The said notional foreign exchange loss being Rs.25.24 crore for the quarter, accounted mostly by two of the company’s subsidiaries viz., Vemagiri Power Generation Limited (VPGL) and GMR Hyderabad International Airport Limited (GHIAL). This was on account of the conversion of the foreign currency project loans borrowed by them into rupees. These two subsidiaries have adequate dollar revenues to provide natural hedge for the currency fluctuations that may arise with respect to interest and principal payments/repayments. What also impacted the bottomline was the lower air traffic and higher interest costs.

The net revenue of the company was up by a healthy 79.28% at Rs.959.15 crore. This surge in the topline was mainly on account of the induction of revenues from Hyderabad Airport and Istanbul Airport and also due to the increased power sector revenues.

Clues In the Company

1. Delhi International Airport Private Ltd. (DIAL),despite overall passenger traffic declining by 8% for the quarter, the outlook remains good. New domestic terminal is getting ready for launch by March, 09. The construction of the new integrated terminal (T3) is progressing as per schedule and 53% of the work has been completed as on date. Bids for commercial property development have been received and the process of award of contract is expected to be completed shortly.

2. 45% construction work on the Sabiha Gokcen International Airport (SGIA), Turkey has been completed commercial operation is scheduled by end October 2009. The construction of the new 3 storied car park facility has been completed and will be commissioned for operations from April 2009.

3. In its power segment, the Chennai plant has achieved a Plant Load Factor of 80.02%. GMR Energy restarted its generation as a merchant plant with effect from November 4, 2008 and is supplying power on a ‘Round-the-clock’ basis to Bangalore Electricity Supply Company Limited (BESCOM), through GMR Energy Trading Limited. The Vemagiri Power Generation Limited (VPGL) resumed operations from December 2008 based on diverted gas as per direction of Ministry of Petrol & Natural Gas, Government of India.

4. Regarding its highway projects, GMR Ambala-Chandigarh Expressways Private Limited (GACEPL), started commercial operations from December 10, 2008. The company has been shortlisted for submission of price bid for Hyderabad - Vijayawada (182km) for which price bid will be submitted in February, 2009. The other three road projects under construction, comprising of one annuity and two toll projects will be operational in the coming months before March 09.

5. There has also been concern over the company having Price Waterhouse as its auditors but the company has decided to continue with the services of Price Waterhouse and said any decision on replacing the external auditor would be taken only in the next financial year. The board decided to constitute a corporate governance committee comprising independent directors. GMR has six independent directors on its board. It has also decided to appoint two joint auditors, a multinational and an Indian audit firm, as statutory auditors from 2009-10. They will be subject to rotation every four years.

About The Stock

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