POWER GENERATION PROGRAMME OF INDIA

The Power Minister said that India would add 100,000 MW capacities during the 12th Plan period and the target for 11th Plan (ends in 2012) is 60,000MW. This has actually been scaled down from earlier announced 78,000MW for the 11th Plan. This scale down was blamed on the shortage of power supply equipments from BHEL and L&T. Till April 2008, we had achieved just about one percent of the earlier set target which is probably the main reason why the target has been scaled down considerably. Yet even this scaled down target seems difficult.

Of the target of 60,000MW, till date only 21% has been completed, meaning only 12,500MW has been added. So over the next three years, we are looking at a capacity addition of 47,500MW. This means, on an average, we have to add on 15,800MW every year till 2012. Well, 12,500MW took two years, can we have 15,800MW each year? When broken down as simply as this, clearly, it seems like a pipe dream. The Govt is banking on the private sector to deliver around 30% of the target before the end of the 11th Plan. It expects parts of the UMPPs to start adding on – 600MW from Reliance Power’s Rosa unit (end of 2009), 1320 MW from Reliance Power’s Sasan (by 2012) and Butiburi power unit to contribute 300MW by 2011. Tata Power has set itself a target of 5800MW by 2012 which includes parts of the Mundra UMPP going on stream and it expects 4000MW JV project with Damodar Valley to also be commissioned before end of 2012. So, putting together Reliance Power and Tata Power, we are looking at the best case scenario of 8000MW coming up by 2012.

JSW Energy is setting up a 3200MW power project and by March 2010, it expects 1200MW to go stream. Lanco Infratech also hopes to get 1000MW on stream by end of the current fiscal. GVK Power is also hoping to add another 1200MW before 2012. The biggest contributor would probably be Adani Power which is looking at delivering 6600MW by 2012. Indiabulls Power is also planning on huge power units but no major capacities are expected to go on stream before 2012. So when we total up all this, we are looking at another 10,000MW by 2012. And if we take into account Tata Power and Reliance Power, we are looking at the private sector contributing around 18,000MW of power by 2012. This is way above the 30% target given by the Govt but then we are assuming that there would be no slippages and the biggest contributor – Adani Power will keep up to its schedule.

The rest is to come from NTPC, which seems to be talking in the wind when it says that it is looking at setting up 30,000MW by 2012. Infact the private sector might deliver but NTPC will fall way short of the target and that could jeopardize the entire 11th Plan target.

To conclude, we will continue to have power shortages – both, in terms of actual supply of power and also in terms of generation but the private sector might just be able to keep the shortage at a lesser level if it does manage to keep to its schedules.